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How present geopolitical and socio-economic events impact European supply chains

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Danny Ramon

Intelligence & Response Manager - Overhaul

The invasion of Ukraine, declining social conditions, rapid increase in the costs of living, and delays/shortages in the supply chain have exacerbated several pre-existing logistic security risks in Europe. There is a broadly established link between high inflation and increased acquisitive crime, particularly as those already dealing with tight budgets find nowhere to turn for cheaper essentials other than to see illicit goods. With inflation in the Eurozone reaching 7.5% in April 2022, familiar threats of cargo theft, smuggling, and trafficking, together with the increased demand for embargoed goods, shortages, and hybrid attacks, are culminating in another busy and concerning year for logistics supply chain security in Europe.

As a major base for manufacturing, Mexico is an important link in the global supply chain of many major companies. Multinationals in the automotive, textile, aerospace, medical, electronic and appliance industries in particular rely on Mexico for a significant portion of their manufacturing capacity, particularly in servicing the huge consumer market of the United States.

Russian organized crime

Sanctions resulting in a shortage of luxury and everyday goods shipping to Russia will create a demand that Russian Organized Criminal Groups (ROCG) can meet. Since the 1990s, ROCG has operated smuggling routes into Western Europe, primarily for the movement of cocaine, heroin and people, and smuggling stolen and sanctioned goods back into Russia. The Northern route through the Baltic is primarily controlled by the Tambovskaya (Tambov gang) of St Petersburg. It is an established smuggling route facilitated by the gang’s presence in ports around the Baltic, notably Riga and Stockholm. Land routes also funnel smuggled goods into Russia through Poland and Lithuania via Belarus. ROCG should be expected to capitalize on the demand for sanctioned goods and exploit links with gangs and organized crime across Europe to source embargoed goods and smuggle them to meet demand in Russia. The decision by Moscow in May to allow the import of goods without the agreement of the intellectual property owners across a broad range of sanctioned products is an unsurprising admission that the sanction-breaking import of goods will face no consequences once across the border. According to data from BSI and the TT Club, the UK and Germany are already among the top five countries globally for cargo theft, and an increase in theft due in part to ROCG in these countries is likely.

Illegal migration

Rising food prices and the disruption of grain exports from Ukraine will severely affect parts of the Middle East and Africa, where there is a high reliance on Russian and Ukrainian exports, increasing the push factors of illegal migration. This will be compounded as already-overstretched relief programmes redirect efforts towards Eastern Europe. With increased illegal immigration driven by rising food prices and conflict in the developing world, greater security to counter people trafficking, threats to cargo integrity and theft of cargo will be required. Research from BSI has found that food and beverage products account for 31% of cargo thefts. This could rise as the cost of living rises, combined with a greater need for humanitarian relief, raising demand for everyday essentials to cater to displaced refugees and migrants throughout Europe.

Food and beverage accounts for

31 percent 

of cargo thefts in Europe

Fuel theft

Even before the invasion of Ukraine fuel prices were high, with diesel hitting 178 pence at the pump in the UK and over €2 in p

Even before the invasion of Ukraine fuel prices were high, with diesel hitting 178 pence at the pump in the UK and over €2 in parts of Europe. Incidents of fuel theft have been rising across Europe, from petty theft from private vehicles to more significant syphoning from commercial vehicles and even attacks on fuel tanker drivers. In parts of Germany, fuel thefts from HGVs and construction vehicles have doubled in the first quarter of 2022, continuing a trend reported in Northern France, Belgium and the Netherlands. Unsurprisingly, the majority of these thefts occur at night, from vehicles in unsecured parking or industrial areas. Despite falling from their peaks of late February, Brent Crude and WTI remain around the $100bbl mark. With embargoes on Russian crude and refined petroleum products set to be phased in by the end of the year, the increased risk of fuel theft will likely continue into at least the short to medium-term.

arts of Europe. Incidents of fuel theft have been rising across Europe, from petty theft from private vehicles to more significant syphoning from commercial vehicles and even attacks on fuel tanker drivers. In parts of Germany, fuel thefts from HGVs and construction vehicles have doubled in the first quarter of 2022, continuing a trend reported in Northern France, Belgium and the Netherlands. Unsurprisingly, the majority of these thefts occur at night, from vehicles in unsecured parking or industrial areas. Despite falling from their peaks of late February, Brent Crude and WTI remain around the $100bbl mark. With embargoes on Russian crude and refined petroleum products set to be phased in by the end of the year, the increased risk of fuel theft will likely continue into at least the short to medium-term. 

Port backlogs

Even before the invasion of Ukraine fuel prices were high, with diesel hitting 178 pence at the pump in the UK and over €2 in p

Embargoes on exports to Russia have necessitated increased customs checks on Russia-bound freight. By late March, the port of Rotterdam – where 10% of container cargo is Russia-related – had 4,500 containers awaiting inspection, placing strains on manpower and port facility storage and reducing throughput of goods by 1.5% for the first quarter.

While this may be an initial surge in Russia-bound freight that will subside as trade with Russia and Belarus declines, dwell times for vessels unloa ding in Southern Europe remains significantly higher than in the weeks before the Ukraine invasions, and embargoes will likely continue to require compliance measures leading to slowdowns in freight handling for the duration of the conflict.

arts of Europe. Incidents of fuel theft have been rising across Europe, from petty theft from private vehicles to more significant syphoning from commercial vehicles and even attacks on fuel tanker drivers. In parts of Germany, fuel thefts from HGVs and construction vehicles have doubled in the first quarter of 2022, continuing a trend reported in Northern France, Belgium and the Netherlands. Unsurprisingly, the majority of these thefts occur at night, from vehicles in unsecured parking or industrial areas. Despite falling from their peaks of late February, Brent Crude and WTI remain around the $100bbl mark. With embargoes on Russian crude and refined petroleum products set to be phased in by the end of the year, the increased risk of fuel theft will likely continue into at least the short to medium-term. 

European trucker shortage and social conditions

Even before the invasion of Ukraine fuel prices were high, with diesel hitting 178 pence at the pump in the UK and over €2 in pPre-existing driver s

Pre-existing driver shortages across Europe will worsen due to the Ukraine War. Estimates by the International Road Transport Union in 2021 were that Germany, France and Spain were facing a combined driver shortfall of 135,000, with shortages expected to increase. In the UK, Brexit has exacerbated driver shortages, estimated as high as 100,000 by the Road Haulage Association. Demands for improved wages and conditions driven by the cost of living and empowered trade unions will increase logistics workers’ activism.

hortages across Europe will worsen due to the Ukraine War. Estimates by the International Road Transport Union in 2021 were that Germany, France and Spain were facing a combined driver shortfall of 135,000, with shortages expected to increase. In the UK, Brexit has exacerbated driver shortages, estimated as high as 100,000 by the Road Haulage Association. Demands for improved wages and conditions driven by the cost of living and empowered trade unions will increase logistics workers’ activism.

arts of Europe. Incidents of fuel theft have been rising across Europe, from petty theft from private vehicles to more significant syphoning from commercial vehicles and even attacks on fuel tanker drivers. In parts of Germany, fuel thefts from HGVs and construction vehicles have doubled in the first quarter of 2022, continuing a trend reported in Northern France, Belgium and the Netherlands. Unsurprisingly, the majority of these thefts occur at night, from vehicles in unsecured parking or industrial areas. Despite falling from their peaks of late February, Brent Crude and WTI remain around the $100bbl mark. With embargoes on Russian crude and refined petroleum products set to be phased in by the end of the year, the increased risk of fuel theft will likely continue into at least the short to medium-term. 

135,000

combined driver shortfall across Germany, France, and Spain

The Ukraine war

The Ukrainian government’s decision to prevent all men aged 18-60 from leaving the country and increase the wages for frontline troops has seen many drivers return to Ukraine to fight. While no concrete numbers are available, tens of thousands have left to return to Ukraine of the approximate 105,000 Ukrainian drivers employed by Polish haulage firms. To make up for the loss Polish firms are recruiting Polish drivers, many of whom will have been working for German businesses – effectively transferring the problem westward. This loss comes on top of ongoing shortages across the EU caused by unattractive wages and working conditions, which have led to poor recruitment and high turnover. New rules governing haulage under the EU Mobility Package adopted in February are meant to improve worker conditions. Still, they are likely to increase costs and reduce trucking capacity in the short term. This lack of capacity will become even more acute as blockages at major ports such as Shanghai are finally cleared and when an end to supply chain shortages, such as in semiconductors, allows the return of manufacturing.

Strikes, Activism & Protests

With high inflation, cost of living rises and high demand for drivers, transport unions are in a strong position to advocate for workers, with increased pay a primary demand. Strike actions such as that seen in Spain throughout March could be seen elsewhere, especially while fuel prices remain high and wages fail to at least match inflation. In the UK, unions have been active in 2022 – negotiating raises for drivers in central England and arranging secondary picketing of freight company customers. These incidents form part of an emerging global trend, with examples

of workers unionizing at large US companies such as Amazon, which have so far resisted unionization. Away from the supply chain, the cost of living and worsening social conditions have seen protests globally over food and fuel prices. Increasingly disruptive environmental protests have seen the road-blocking tactics of Insulate Britain and Just Stop Oil in the UK spread to groups like Letzte Generation in Germany, who have targeted ports and transport infrastructure on a number of occasions.

Conclusion

There are many challenges to providing fast and secure logistics, and many factors add to their complexity. To mitigate these factors, an effective response must itself overcome a series of challenges:

  • Seeing the trends (Intelligence) – Identifying global trends and geopolitical events with the potential to impact logistics so that decision-makers can make informed decisions is a constant challenge. The complexity and fragility of global supply chain logistics mean the threat of Black Swan events can only be mitigated by forward-looking intelligence and informed analysis.
  • Seeing the threats (visibility) – The complex freight flows across borders, jurisdictions, and handlers provide ample opportunity for delays, theft, and tampering. Real-time situational awareness not just of a cargo’s location but of the obstacles along its route – whether they are protests, criminality, floods, or conflict – is a complex but increasingly necessary aspect of logistics security that is yet to be fully achieved.

 

  • Coordinating the response – Conducting a rapid, tactical response to issues facing logistics security requires information on threats and location and fast and effective dissemination of this information to local law enforcement and security agencies. With 24 official languages spoken across Europe and numerous law enforcement jurisdictions, the coordination required between shippers, 3PL and international agencies down to local law enforcement is still underdeveloped.

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Overhaul Risk Advisory Services, LLC DBA: Overhaul Risk & Insurance Services (Legal name of the Insurance Agency) is a licensed insurance brokerage (TX, and license #: 2800637). Overhaul Risk Advisory Services is not an insurance company but acts as an agent and or advisor for certain insurance companies and programs. Overhaul Risk and Advisory Services is paid commission and may receive other performance-based compensation for its services. All compensation received by Overhaul Risk & Advisory Services, its affiliates, and its employees may vary by insurance company and state where business is placed.

Copyright ©️ 2024 Overhaul

Overhaul is the global leader of in-transit supply chain risk management and actionable intelligence, with a 98% customer approval rating.

Overhaul Risk Advisory Services, LLC DBA: Overhaul Risk & Insurance Services (Legal name of the Insurance Agency) is a licensed insurance brokerage (TX, and license #: 2800637). Overhaul Risk Advisory Services is not an insurance company but acts as an agent and or advisor for certain insurance companies and programs. Overhaul Risk and Advisory Services is paid commission and may receive other performance-based compensation for its services. All compensation received by Overhaul Risk & Advisory Services, its affiliates, and its employees may vary by insurance company and state where business is placed.

Copyright © 2024 Overhaul
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