Dave Warrick
EVP Enterprise
During my time in supply chain operations, I’ve never seen shifts as significant as those happening today. With cargo theft becoming more advanced and artificial intelligence (AI) reshaping the industry, even greater changes are on the horizon. To help our customers prepare, my colleagues and I have compiled our supply chain predictions for 2026. Together, we can proactively address these challenges and seize the opportunities that lie ahead.
How AI is changing the criminal landscape
Danny Ramon, Director of Intelligence and Response, offered some sobering supply chain predictions. Already, generative AI (GenAI) is playing a role in criminal activities, and in 2026, its impact will become more severe.
“AI is being used in the criminal world maybe even more readily than in the professional world,” he explained. “Bad actors don’t need board approval. They can scrape data, surveil facilities, and use AI-driven tools for fast, actionable results.”
AI-written phishing emails are nearly perfect now, and criminals can edit cargo photos and documents in seconds. This makes forgeries hard to spot, which in turn leads to manipulated shipment information and impersonated carriers.
Next year and beyond, criminals will continue exploiting both digital and physical weak spots. They’ll also adapt their strategies to best suit the new and changing supply chain ecosystem. As Ramon said, “Gone are the days when cargo was stolen to order. The focus has shifted to stealing what can be quickly liquidated. Now, stolen goods can be laundered through e-commerce platforms, making them hard to trace even if recovered, as end consumers rarely question the source. The criminal world is agile, and their methods evolve fast; AI will only help them evolve even quicker.”
AI as a competitive advantage
Although GenAI will continue to aid criminals, it will also become a necessity for taking them down. Jonathan Ryan, our Chief Product and Technology Officer, predicts a future where data, harnessed through AI, fundamentally improves operations.
“GenAI unlocks the ability to digitize and leverage passive data that’s always existed in supply chain networks but was never captured or stored before,” he said. “Traditional large language models need thousands of photos to train. With GenAI, we simply structure a prompt to extract information. This has allowed us to pull key details from Bills of Lading without extensive training data.”
GenAI technology will also play an increasingly important role in fraud prevention. For instance, when a photo of a DOT number on a tractor-trailer is received, GenAI can quickly parse the information and cross-reference it with intelligence databases to verify its legitimacy. This process creates an additional data layer, enabling proactive identification and mitigation of potential supply chain issues before they arise.
One of these issues, communication gaps, will especially benefit from these tools. As Ryan said, “Shippers want to avoid losses and receivers want full shelves, but communication often falls short. Overhaul can connect those dots, reducing costs for shippers and disappointment for receivers. Combating theft at today’s level will require joint industry effort, and Overhaul can help drive that collaboration.”
Communication and authenticity
This need for better collaboration was also highlighted by Karin Stevens, Overhaul’s Chief Marketing Officer. She predicts that community and relationships will be key business differentiators in 2026.
“AI is enhancing how we work,” she said, “but the power of building a community, where you are authentically yourself, will be a big focus for next year. We’re already seeing this supply chain trend in our customer sessions and at offline events. People are investing more time in relationship-building because, with AI making work more efficient, authenticity is what sets you apart.”
Stevens also noted a significant shift: “There’s a growing recognition that solving today’s supply chain challenges requires cross-functional teams working together, not just within a single company, but across the entire ecosystem. Our customers are increasingly bringing together operations, compliance, IT, and even their external partners to tackle problems collaboratively. AI can help make these connections, but the drive to break down silos and innovate together is a uniquely human force.”
Although AI brings efficiency and scale, it also risks eroding trust. When the human element is removed entirely, a business can feel artificial and impersonal. As she explained, “Storytelling has never been more important in a world saturated by ‘AI slop,’ or endless, low-quality content generated by algorithms. Content strategy starts the conversation, but it doesn’t finish it. The brands winning today are the most relatable and trustworthy.”
As supply chain leaders and consumers tire of this “AI slop,” the demand for authentic, human connection will grow. As Stevens said, “Operating through a lens of authenticity and building a community around your brand will be the winning supply chain strategy. AI can help start relationships, but it’s real people and real stories that build trust and loyalty.”
My take on what’s ahead
Everything my colleagues have said above about agentic and GenAI is true. At the same time, right now, we’re living through Amara’s Law, which says we tend to overestimate the impact of technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long run.
Some see AI as a bubble or a passing fad, but in reality, its influence will accelerate rapidly, especially by 2026. As AI continues to evolve, digital literacy and AI fluency will become critical skills for the next generation of supply chain professionals. Our industry hasn’t always excelled at change management, but the stakes are higher now, especially with the rise of cyber threats and deepfakes.
Agentic AI will soon transform customer interactions. Already, automated agents are managing call centers, banking, insurance, and beyond. While these systems can mimic human voices and appearances, AI doesn’t have lived experiences, emotions or values. It can follow rules and patterns, but true critical thinking requires judgement and adaptability beyond data. That’s where humans remain essential.
Crucially, AI’s real potential is in weaving together the physical and digital supply chain. It connects IoT signals, robotics, and traditional systems to deliver true end-to-end visibility and optimization. For this reason, during 2026, we must get serious about the governance of GenAI and agentic AI models. We need clear rules and oversight for how AI interacts in the workplace and with other agents.
All of this is unfolding amid unprecedented geopolitical and economic volatility. Leaders are being challenged to make supply chains more dynamic and resilient in a world that’s anything but static. As we move forward, only those ready to adapt—technologically, strategically, and operationally—will thrive.
What our supply chain predictions mean for 2026
Bringing these insights together, the picture of the 2026 supply chain industry comes into focus. Bad actors will continue to leverage GenAI, making advanced crimes and fraud more prevalent. At the same time, data-driven AI will be foundational to businesses, unlocking new layers of real time supply chain visibility, risk management, and operational efficiency. And to set them apart, these businesses must prioritize trust, authenticity, and human connection.
In short, success in 2026 will not be measured solely by minimizing cargo loss or delivery speed, but by the strength of the communities we build and the trust we inspire.
At Overhaul, our mission is to be more than a technology provider. We aim to be a trusted partner for shippers, carriers, and receivers alike. By bridging gaps, providing actionable intelligence, and putting people at the center of our work, we’re helping to shape a future where global supply chains are not only more secure and efficient but also more connected and resilient.
Learn more about our AI-powered, human-led approach to the future of supply chain management.
