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Between 2023 and 2024, cargo crime in the US grew exponentially, jumping from 1,183 incidents to 2,217. Notably, the locations in which these crimes took place, as well as how frequently they occurred in said locations, has also changed. To better explore these patterns, Overhaul’s cargo theft heat maps detail how the concentration of cargo theft is evolving. In turn, this information can help shippers better identify patterns, plan their routes, and prepare for location-specific risks.
Breaking down Overhaul’s cargo theft heat maps
General patterns
Overall, certain locations in the US have historically been more likely to experience cargo theft than others. For instance, California and Texas have remained the top two most targeted states between 2023 and 2024. However, in 2023, 54% of events occurred in California, while only 16% took place in Texas (16%). In 2024, crime in California decreased to 32%, while crimes across Texas rose to 19%.
In 2023, 50% of all cargo thefts took place in Quadrant 3, or the southwest portion of the US. This quadrant consists of New Mexico, Arizona, and parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Colorado, and California. In 2024, the number of thefts in this quadrant decreased to 30%.
At the same time, thefts in Quadrant 4 rose from 32% to 44%. This quadrant consists of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina. It also contains parts of Kentucky, Virginia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri. Increased thefts in Memphis, Dallas, and Atlanta, specifically, led to the overall increase in Quadrant 4 thefts.
More specific cargo theft trends
As mentioned previously, crime tends to localize in specific locations across the US. This is true on not just a quadrant or state level, but also in regards to individual cities. Several notable trends observed in our cargo crime heat maps include:
Texas: Texas as a whole experienced an increase in cargo crime and hotspot locations in 2024. However, a few specific locations, such as San Antonio and Austin, experienced fewer crimes.
California: In 2024, cargo crime in California moved northward, with events increasing in San Francisco. Like the previous year, the southeast remains the most vulnerable portion of the state.
Georgia: While hotspots were mostly localized to Atlanta in 2023, they spread to and worsened in the South, Southeast, and Northwest of Georgia in 2024.
New York: Crimes in central New York were also on the rise in 2024. However, the Long Island area remained the riskiest location.
Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania experienced a notable uptick in cargo crime over the previous year. In 2023, experts noted one hotspot in Philadelphia, but in 2024, crime spread throughout the state.
Other states: Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Iowa, and Missouri experienced essentially no cargo crime during 2023. However, as of 2024, all five states experienced notable upticks.
What our cargo theft heat maps suggest about future crimes
In 2023, Overhaul predicted that cargo crime across the US would jump in 2024. Notably, the jump was on the high end of what we anticipated, marking a 49% increase in volume. In other words, the US experienced ~6.07 cargo theft incidents per day in 2024, up from 4.06 in 2023. Additionally, each quarter surpassed the same period in the previous year by a striking 30% in theft incidents.
The average value of cargo theft in 2024 also jumped by 17% when compared to 2023. If the supply chain ecosystem fails to invest in cargo crime prevention, shippers can expect this value to grow.
Unfortunately, Overhaul’s experts predict a rise from 2,217 cargo crime events in 2024 to 2,705 events in 2025. Based on our cargo theft heat maps, these crimes will likely localize in California, Tennessee, and other high-risk states. However, as seen in the heat map differences between 2023 and 2024, some variation is to be expected.
Through our real-time monitoring, route analyses, and global intelligence, Overhaul enables companies to prepare for evolving challenges. Reach out to discuss your location-specific challenges, and download our 2024 US Cargo Theft Report to learn more about current risks.
